Doom and gloom on one side, hyperventilating optimism on the other. Everyone's speculating about AI. Still, I think a clear vision of what's actually happening is within reach. We only need to look at the past.
When tools changed who could do the work
Assembly programmers → compilers
High-level languages changed who programming was for. Scientists and mathematicians could suddenly use computers freely. So did engineers. It wasn't only about making existing programmers more productive. It was about changing who could do the work at all. Assembly programmers didn't disappear, but demand shrank dramatically as those working at higher abstraction levels exploded.
Operations teams → cloud platforms
AWS lets application developers provision infrastructure without understanding datacenters. Ops specialists moved to niche platform roles. Developer demand still grew.
Darkroom technicians → digital cameras
Digital photography let anyone capture and share moments instantly. Professional film processors became rare. Amateur photographers numbered in billions.
Professional navigators → GPS
Turn-by-turn navigation made every driver their own navigator. Specialized navigators remained for aviation and maritime. Consumer navigation became universal.
And the list goes on and on.
The pattern
Each tool raised the abstraction level. Physicists didn't become programming experts, they stayed physicists who could now use computers. The implementation layer became invisible.
The tool didn't only make existing workers more productive. It also changed who could do the work.
AI is following the same pattern. Software development demand will keep growing, but who writes the code is about to shift.
Disaster or opportunity?
Depends where you're standing. Specialists watching their field commoditized are right to worry. Those gaining new capabilities are right to be excited.
The question isn't whether this is good or bad. It's more like, where will you position yourself?